Nearly 3 years ago, with silver trading near $40/oz and gold near all-time nominal highs, SD gold & silver analyst Marshall Swing shocked the PM community by warning that silver would crash to $15/oz, then rocket past $1,000/oz as fiat collapses!
Fast forward to Oct 31st, 2014, and silver has indeed crashed to a $15 handle.
Does the ONLY precious metals analyst who forecast silver’s crash from $50 to $15 still believe a silver moon-shot past $1,000/oz is coming along with a full-fledged fiat currency collapse?
Take heart silver investors. The one analyst who saw this coming remains as bullish as ever:
Marshall Swing first warned SD readers in March of 2012 that silver could be headed to $15/oz:
Marshall repeated his call that silver was headed to $15/oz in early March of 2014:
Well, SD readers, we have gotten a mild price attack on the metalsbut nothing as severe as what I think is to come.
Notice, despite the commercials discarding large open interest contracts in both shorts and longs they even deepened their total open interest net short position and are very close to 200,000,000 net ounces short.
My calculations say they can crash silver price to $15 if that is their target.
Looking at the charts, I believe the COT period is defined by a mild attack on silver occurred by our lovely Blythe Masters and her underlings. In my humble opinion I suspect she pulls the strings no matter where she is located.
It appears in the numbers that Commercials took major profits at or near the top and then forced price down with their traditional short covering reaping the rewards of contracts in the money on both ends.
What is very interesting is those small silver speculators who give the appearance of mirroring the commercial’s maneuvering and discarded longs and shorts in hopefully the same order reaping fairly short term profits. In order to reap the reward of the bullion banks serpents one has to be as wise as a serpent!
Very interesting that the large speculators appear to have been caught with their pants down and the totals of the numbers do not reveal they did anything much but remember COT numbers are totals shown on a weekly basis and never reveal everything about what happened. What happened can only be known by following price and volume action on a day to day basis as well as following the CFTC daily reports. Couple that with logical assumptions developed over a long period of time, proven or disproven theories, and you might have a chance of anticipating what is going to happen in this marketplace.
Otherwise, stackers try to buy on the low dips and hold for a long time waiting patiently for the metal to assume its rightful place in price reflection by virtue of demand and world events.
Notice, despite the commercials discarding large open interest contracts in both shorts and longs they even deepened their total open interest net short position and are very close to 200,000,000 net ounces short. My calculations say they can crash silver price to $15 if that is their target.
However, also notice those commercial swap dealer’s totals reflect them being eerily silent during the reporting period. They appear to have merely stood back and let JPM drop price.
While there was a huge selloff in open interest in silver, in gold new open interest contracts were added.
Almost 5,800 new contracts came into being and notice the share of the commercials new short positions! 6,355 new shorts so they are happy the silver bullion bank lowered price on both metals by virtue of traders following trends and they have increased their net short position by many ounces.
Again, here as in silver, it is the producer merchant bullion bank who is making the big move short but here they have loaded up on the short side!
Looking at the price action in gold we see the price went down some then came right back up to the same levels, even higher during the COT week contrary to the action we see in silver which went down and stayed down.
We see some long buying by the large specs but they were forced out of many short positions. I suspect they bought shorts on the way down and the bullion banks realized this, jumped price back up after buying longs and forced the specs out of those new shorts. Just my guess!
Could price soon rise again? Sure, but the short term trend is down and I suspect any long attempts by speculators will get slammed.
My thoughts are the markets have decided the Ukraine situation is not as bad as some would have you believe and is not going to escalate and the equities markets will resume their upward march and metals will get slammed in the coming weeks.
See you in the comments section!
So is the ONLY precious metals analyst who predicted the white metal’s crash to a $15 handle looking for more pain ahead and a further collapse to long term support at $9, or does he still believe silver’s next move is a rocket through the nearly unimaginable number of $1,000/oz in the wake of a fiat currency collapse?
You bet he does…and he is predicting the dollar’s melt-down and precious metals blast-off is LESS THAN A YEAR AWAY:
What you see on the chart on this past Friday into Sunday/Monday has all the markings of a classic commercial short covering price raid but that is the subject of next week’s report after the numbers come out… That $16 handle came and went quickly, did it not? It is still time to BUY, BUY, BUY physical silver with every fiat cash dollar you have.
Plan on holding 1.5 – 2 years into the biggest wave up you will have ever witnessed in any lifetime!
Another week goes by and the same old story? Not quite, but close. What happened this COT Week is the speculators started to blink or at least they are showing who they truly are and that is honest players in the manipulation game. Perhaps they are greedy and out to make super profits but they appear to go about it honestly, at any rate. We don’t see government and commercial banks accusing precious metal speculators of manipulating gold and silver prices the way we saw speculation blamed for the rise in oil to almost $150 a barrel in 2008. What happened this week was telling, to say the least.
In silver, speculators grabbed up about 5,324 short positions or over 26 Million ounces of the white stuff in the form of shorts. BUT, they also doubted and took almost 4,000 longs! The silver week is almost a wash. Meanwhile, back at the commercial ranch, those swap dealers were doing the long stocking stuffing with over 2,000 of those and we see -881 short coverings by the producer merchant and that may be the fast dip at the end of the period. But notice those small specs as they loosed only -66 shorts and took 824 longs. The appetite for speculator short positions may be slowing down and curiously enough, just today we see price take a turn upwards over the last two days as far as $1 North only to come back down to rest around $17.20.
There appears to be no great interest yet in the commercials driving price far North to trap speculator shorts but also no desire to drive it into the $16s and $15s. Notice the speculator spreading and a lot was taken off the table as the reality sets in price could shoot far upwards and quickly, and without warning. The silver chart bears little resemblance to the gold chart. In gold, price was far more volatile and we see the commercials cover just over 6,800 shorts and the disaggregated COT shows the swap dealer cashing in on almost 7,700 of those puppies to the tune of almost 38.5 Million ounces steep into the money, huge profits!
I will not speculate how much into the money but you have to realize those shorts could have been taken at $20 and much higher and now price is around $17… That’s more than I made all of last year! And the year before, and the year before…. Okay, that is more than I have made in my lifetime but who’s counting?
Okay, that’s more profit than most companies make in a year but who’s counting? You get the idea… The commercials are counting! Very curiously, however, the combination of the producer merchant and the swap dealer selling about 4,800 longs during the same COT Week is very interesting, mathematically, to say the very least. As a general rule, they buy longs low and sell high and I have documented many times as they buy longs at a high price and hold onto them far lower then let them go to crash price.
Same commercials, many different methods available to them when they do not have to worry much about losses knowing they will recoup them in an HFT raid up or down. They can play price just like a puppet on strings. Just look at that gold chart and imagine those commercials driving price up and down and up and down and up and down and down and up and down. That is what I have marked in the chart.
I am quite certain they use the lows to buy longs (taking advantage of the speculators taking shorts) drive the price up, sell the longs, drive it down, buy some more, repeat, rinse, start again. It is a volatility game they played this past COT Week and played it very well they did, indeed.
Now, what you see on the chart on this past Friday into Sunday/Monday has all the markings of a classic commercial short covering price raid but that is the subject of next week’s report after the numbers come out…That $16 handle came and went quickly, did it not?
It is still time to BUY, BUY, BUY physical silver with every fiat cash dollar you have. Plan on holding 1.5 – 2 years into the biggest wave up you will have ever witnessed in any lifetime!
Reporting from the wilderness of Southern Illinois, stay thirsty for physical, my friends,
Take heart silver investors. The one analyst who saw this coming remains as bullish as ever.
It’s about time for me to write my piece on $15 silver and $500 gold, I think.
It seems quite some people get into the market not having the strength to withstand the volatility even though what drew them in was the logic behind the PM story and its validity in time of hyperinflation as a store of wealth.
When silver is $500-$1000 those who sold at $26 will be sorry because they will have nothing in the end after the crash…
It does not matter what happens with the world’s economy, like some are talking, (such as Faber), about commodities crashing with the slowdown in the global economy. When the wealth of the world rushes into gold and silver when there is nothing left it will not matter that PM wealth might have devalued 50-75% in the crash.
Fake wealth will stay down while real PM wealth will soar.
If silver is $15 at the bottom and $1000 at the top then that is 6,700% just based on today’s math.
But if there is the great deflation that I theorize, then what was $1000 goes to nothing so what becomes $1000 is actually many, many multiples of that $1000 as compared to those who have nothing.
That is multiplying 1000 times not just 67 times in respect to those who have nothing and the coming revaluation of the world wealth in terms of an asset backed trade system of currency (SDR).
So $15 silver ounce at the bottom is really $15,000 in terms of relative wealth, if my logic is correct.
Catch my drift?